Mauricio Macri's Victory Demonstrates ThatMonday 11th of July 2011 11:11:35 AM
Mauricio Macri's victory proves that the Baldwin can be defeated in October
Even though he insisted on trying him, the sadness of the ruling party about the outcome of yesterday was unavoidable. Not only was not expected that Mauricio Macri was recipient of such number of votes, but it also expected that Daniel Filmus would have a very impoverished performance. Accordingly, reading that made the fans macristas yesterday was linear: 70% of people voted against the Government national.
Is it so? Are the votes he received Filmus those that receive Cristina in October? What they say some of the pollsters engaged by the ruling party, this would not be so successful and Cristina would have greater voting intention to Filmus taken in Federal Capital.
, However, cannot be avoided remembering that those same companies of public opinion measurement foresaw that the difference between Macri and Filmus not exceeded in the best 8%. One in which they addressed more in this regard has been the former Artemio Lopez pizzero, owner of consulting firm Equis, who swears to anyone who wants to hear it that Cristina Kirchner exceeds 40% intend to vote at the national level. After what happened yesterday, can insist with that axiom?
The issue becomes more uncomfortable even for the ruling party if you have in mind that two key provinces as Santa Fe and Córdoba will not be so easy to candidates of kirchnerism impose electoral preferences.
In the first province, Rubén Giustiniani manages preferences that rub 50%, while Agustín Rossi spider 30%. At the same time, the negative image of the official candidate to grow, reaching a rejection of 35% according to the latest poll of Polyarchy - one of the very few serious firms.
In Cordoba, who today lead preferences is José Manuel de la Sota with little more than 33% of voting intention; behind him stands the figure of Louis judge. We must remember that De la Sota broken lances with the Casa Rosada once they try to impose on his partner of formula, something similar to what happened with the pampas Carlos Verna.
With the described scenario, can you insist with Cristina Kirchner is unbeatable? In fact, part of this myth is related to the dispersion shown by the opposition in recent months, as endorsed by gestures of personal ambition and few wishes to join in a common project inter-forces.
However, something has begun to change in recent weeks, especially after the President of the nation tried to impose on certain candidates in the face of the coming elections.
For example, in these hours the said De la Sota has initiated discussions to make Alliance with sectors of the PJ which was faced until now. In this way, it would enhance the intention to vote and could stretch 10 points above the 33% that holds today.
In felt similar, Eduardo Duhalde has begun to hold meetings reserved some of the most powerful mayors in the suburbs, such as Hugo Curto February 3 - who in fact never stopped talking-, Raúl Otacehe Merlo and Martin Insaurralde, Lomas de Zamora. Under the ghost that kirchnerismo trying to push candidates in all Buenos Aires ballots - in some cases already has done so-, Duhalde managed to make their voices heard and many will play, as in 2009, to accompany the ruling while they make campaign for themselves. It is expected from this same column accurate cuts of ballot, among other exploits.
Finally, as you can see him it will not be so easy to the Baldwin support his reeleccionario project. There are still more than three months for the presidential elections and the official trend is going down, slight but sustained should add to this.
From here to that date, anything can happen. To understand it, is enough to recall what happened in 2009 with Francisco De Narváez: in March 2009 few knew him; in June, he won the all-powerful Néstor Kirchner.
There will be a De Narvaez in these elections? Impossible to predict what yet, but anything can happen. Once a former powerful Minister said it this means journalists: "In the Argentina, anything is possible, to the crazy".
In October, that phrase may again become flesh. It is not little.
Source:
"The second is vital for the Government because if won't 4 defeats Sunday"
ANALYST ANTICIPÓ THAT FPV LOSE SANTA FE AND CÓRDOBA
Buenos Aires elections were a result clear. Although official data are not yet known, we know that there will be a ballottage between Mauricio Macri and Daniel Filmus.
And this is not one minor for the Baldwin result. It is true that explained the political analyst Rosendo Fraga, the result will be a key influence in the creation of a political climate more favourable to the ruling party or the opposition.
"Come from seven elections in provinces girls, or some medium, where in most won the national Government." "Then they had created a more favourable climate for the ruling party," said.
However, added that Buenos Aires choice "begins another cycle in territorial and political terms, because probably socialism WINS Santa Fe, Cordoba win De la Sota, who today has broken with the House pink, or eventually judge, the radical candidate".
In this context, Fraga pointed out that "it is vital for the ruling party July 31" (date of the second round) "because if wouldn't have four Sundays of electoral defeats over large districts".
Anyway, the analyst said these results "did not anticipate the outcome but create a political climate".
On the other hand, referred to the internal of August 14, which he described as "an unpublished fact..." "that is on track to be a great survey nationall".
link:
Source:
Even though he insisted on trying him, the sadness of the ruling party about the outcome of yesterday was unavoidable. Not only was not expected that Mauricio Macri was recipient of such number of votes, but it also expected that Daniel Filmus would have a very impoverished performance. Accordingly, reading that made the fans macristas yesterday was linear: 70% of people voted against the Government national.
Is it so? Are the votes he received Filmus those that receive Cristina in October? What they say some of the pollsters engaged by the ruling party, this would not be so successful and Cristina would have greater voting intention to Filmus taken in Federal Capital.
, However, cannot be avoided remembering that those same companies of public opinion measurement foresaw that the difference between Macri and Filmus not exceeded in the best 8%. One in which they addressed more in this regard has been the former Artemio Lopez pizzero, owner of consulting firm Equis, who swears to anyone who wants to hear it that Cristina Kirchner exceeds 40% intend to vote at the national level. After what happened yesterday, can insist with that axiom?
The issue becomes more uncomfortable even for the ruling party if you have in mind that two key provinces as Santa Fe and Córdoba will not be so easy to candidates of kirchnerism impose electoral preferences.
In the first province, Rubén Giustiniani manages preferences that rub 50%, while Agustín Rossi spider 30%. At the same time, the negative image of the official candidate to grow, reaching a rejection of 35% according to the latest poll of Polyarchy - one of the very few serious firms.
In Cordoba, who today lead preferences is José Manuel de la Sota with little more than 33% of voting intention; behind him stands the figure of Louis judge. We must remember that De la Sota broken lances with the Casa Rosada once they try to impose on his partner of formula, something similar to what happened with the pampas Carlos Verna.
With the described scenario, can you insist with Cristina Kirchner is unbeatable? In fact, part of this myth is related to the dispersion shown by the opposition in recent months, as endorsed by gestures of personal ambition and few wishes to join in a common project inter-forces.
However, something has begun to change in recent weeks, especially after the President of the nation tried to impose on certain candidates in the face of the coming elections.
For example, in these hours the said De la Sota has initiated discussions to make Alliance with sectors of the PJ which was faced until now. In this way, it would enhance the intention to vote and could stretch 10 points above the 33% that holds today.
In felt similar, Eduardo Duhalde has begun to hold meetings reserved some of the most powerful mayors in the suburbs, such as Hugo Curto February 3 - who in fact never stopped talking-, Raúl Otacehe Merlo and Martin Insaurralde, Lomas de Zamora. Under the ghost that kirchnerismo trying to push candidates in all Buenos Aires ballots - in some cases already has done so-, Duhalde managed to make their voices heard and many will play, as in 2009, to accompany the ruling while they make campaign for themselves. It is expected from this same column accurate cuts of ballot, among other exploits.
Finally, as you can see him it will not be so easy to the Baldwin support his reeleccionario project. There are still more than three months for the presidential elections and the official trend is going down, slight but sustained should add to this.
From here to that date, anything can happen. To understand it, is enough to recall what happened in 2009 with Francisco De Narváez: in March 2009 few knew him; in June, he won the all-powerful Néstor Kirchner.
There will be a De Narvaez in these elections? Impossible to predict what yet, but anything can happen. Once a former powerful Minister said it this means journalists: "In the Argentina, anything is possible, to the crazy".
In October, that phrase may again become flesh. It is not little.
Source:
"The second is vital for the Government because if won't 4 defeats Sunday"
ANALYST ANTICIPÓ THAT FPV LOSE SANTA FE AND CÓRDOBA
Buenos Aires elections were a result clear. Although official data are not yet known, we know that there will be a ballottage between Mauricio Macri and Daniel Filmus.
And this is not one minor for the Baldwin result. It is true that explained the political analyst Rosendo Fraga, the result will be a key influence in the creation of a political climate more favourable to the ruling party or the opposition.
"Come from seven elections in provinces girls, or some medium, where in most won the national Government." "Then they had created a more favourable climate for the ruling party," said.
However, added that Buenos Aires choice "begins another cycle in territorial and political terms, because probably socialism WINS Santa Fe, Cordoba win De la Sota, who today has broken with the House pink, or eventually judge, the radical candidate".
In this context, Fraga pointed out that "it is vital for the ruling party July 31" (date of the second round) "because if wouldn't have four Sundays of electoral defeats over large districts".
Anyway, the analyst said these results "did not anticipate the outcome but create a political climate".
On the other hand, referred to the internal of August 14, which he described as "an unpublished fact..." "that is on track to be a great survey nationall".
link:
Source: